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Cabinet received report ES/0203 by the Leader of the Council and the Assistant Cabinet Member with responsibility for Resources which set out an updated Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) for the Council as at November 2019.
The Leader, prior to presentation of the report, thanked the Assistant Cabinet Member with responsibility for Finance, and the Finance Team, for all of their hard work in preparing the report particularly, he stated, in these challenging times.
The Assistant Cabinet Member stated that the MTFS provided a baseline forecast of income and expenditure and looked at the overall financial climate, including public finances and the local government financial environment. The report sets out the current assumptions made in identifying resources for the MTFS. The key feature of the updated MTFS was that with the announcement of a one-year only Government Spending Round and Local Government Settlement for 2020/21, significant reforms to the Local Government Finance System had now been delayed.
The MTFS attached as Appendix A had been revised for updates including those resulting from the 2018/19 outturn position of the predecessor Councils; budget monitoring forecasts; budget review meetings; and the Local Government Finance Settlement technical consultation. The draft MTFS would be continually revised with updates including those resulting from further budget monitoring forecasts; the provisional Local Government Finance Settlement, and the emerging replacement for the East Suffolk Business Plan.
The Assistant Cabinet Member advised that Sections 2 and 3 of the MTFS provided some background on the current economic outlook. Section 4 covered the current local government finance position and the current forecast position on the Council’s major income streams for 2020/21.
A technical consultation on the 2020/21 Local Government Finance Settlement was issued on 3rd October 2019. As well as deferring reforms to the system, the proposal for 2020/21 was essentially to roll forward the 2019/20 Settlement with relevant uplifts for inflation. Consequently, the Council was likely to receive Revenue Support Grant and Rural Services Delivery Grant around the current levels. Partly offsetting these elements, the allocations for New Homes Bonus (NHB) for 2020/21 would also be for one year only for 2020/21, rather than for four years. The Government would consult further on incentives to promote housing growth, and indications were that NHB may not continue beyond 2020/21 in its present form. Only business rates pilots in the original “devolution” areas would go ahead in 2020/21, with all other pilots cancelled.
Financially, the most significant issue for the Council arising from this was that it would benefit from an additional year under the current business rates regime. The MTFS went into the position on Business Rates in some detail and illustrated the volatility associated with the current system. The position currently forecast for 2020/21 was significantly better than the scenario previously forecast for next year, which has now been deferred until 2021/22 onwards. Business rates estimates would be revised during December and January when the NNDR1 estimated business rates return needed to be completed for the Government.
Council tax continued to be a stable income stream, and the Council tax base continued to exhibit growth of just over 1% per year. The technical consultation indicated a referendum limit of 2% or £5, as in previous years, and an increase of £4.95 had been included in the updated MTFS forecasts.
In the technical consultation, the position on New Homes Bonus (NHB) was the least positive area, with an allocation of one year only in 2020/21, with no “legacy” payments relating to this allocation – under the current arrangements the allocation would have been paid for an additional three years.
The Assistant Cabinet Member drew Members' attention to tables 5.1 and 5.2 and advised that they shew the summary updated MTFS position and all key movements. The local government finance position for 2020/21, particularly the delays on business rate reforms, now indicated that the Council could be in a balanced budget position in 2020/21, including the ability to contribute to reserves and continue to progress projects and initiatives. However, this favourable one-off position needed to be balanced against an uncertain position from 2021/22 onwards, and the continuation of significant underlying budget gaps.
Section 5 of the MTFS also outlined the key assumptions used in formulation the Council’s Budget. A range of key areas, especially Partnerships, still needed to be reviewed before the budget was presented to Cabinet in January 2020 and finalised in February 2020.
Section 6 summarised the position on the Council’s Reserves and Balances, taking into account both the outturn positions of Waveney and Suffolk Coastal, and the latest forecasts in the MTFS. Table 6.10 summaries reserves and balances by purpose, project, and initiatives.
Finally, the Assistant Cabinet Member advised that section 7 summarised the latest update of the General Fund Capital Programme, which would be the subject of a separate report in January 2020.
The Cabinet Member with responsibility for the Environment referred to the Council's investments and asked if they were ethical and matched the values of the Council. In response, the Assistant Cabinet Member stated that there were multi asset investments; he said that he could not guarantee that the Cabinet Member with responsibility for the Environment would support all of them, it should be remembered that the reason for these investments was to raise the best possible rate of interest so that all portfolios could spend accordingly. However, he stated, the Council did have the ability, following any concerns raised by the Council's advisers, to change them.
The Cabinet Member with responsibility for Housing referred to the possible increase in Council Tax and thought that the Council had no choice in this matter; he felt that it would be prudent for Cabinet to make this recommendation to Full Council. The Leader agreed, stating that it was the right thing to do. The Cabinet Member with responsibility for Customer Services and Operational Partnerships added that the Council provided good value to its taxpayers and always took decisions that were well thought through.
The Assistant Cabinet Member with responsibility for Community Health asked how the pension scheme would be supported. The Chief Finance Officer stated that the local government pension scheme fund for East Suffolk, that the Council's fund, was 98% funded as at 31 March. However, since that date the actuaries have confirmed that the Council's pension fund is now 100% funded. Therefore, from a local government pension scheme contributions perspective, the Council would reduce its contributions and there would be a saving to the Council over the next three years.
Councillor Elliott stated that ethical investments were ethical and this did not mean that they had a lesser financial return; in fact, he said, during the banking crisis a lot of the banks came out of it really well. Councillor Elliott asked that the assumption was not made that ethical investment was not a good financial investment; it was both, he said.
Councillor Elliott referred to the demise of the New Homes Bonus, over the next two years, and asked what impact this would have on the Council's enabling communities budgets and community partnerships. The Leader gave an assurance that there would be no impact, saying that both were already fully funded.
Councillor Elliott referred to one of the Council's largest areas of operational expenditure being via the Norse partnership; he asked if any work had been done in respect of the potential financial savings of bringing the work back in house at the end of the contract. The Leader responded, stating that the Council had started work on a review of the Norse contract per se; he said the the contract end was approximately two years away and so now was the right time to start to examine, not only the Norse contract, but all contracts that were coming to an end. The remit of that work was to fully understand exactly what Norse delivered and to ensure the level and quality of service was meeting the needs of the new Council and to ensure what was being delivered was value for money. The Leader made it clear that value for money was not always about money, it was about whether that was the best way to deliver the services, cheapest was not always the best.
Councillor Byatt referred to income to the Council's pension fund and asked how much the Council depended on its external investments. The Chief Finance Officer responded, stating that the Suffolk pension scheme had its own Board and the Council employed fund managers; the purpose of the fund managers was to maximise return; it was very different, he said, to how he would manage the Council's investments; that was what would pay individual pensions.
In response to Councillor Byatt asking if the Council invested in fossil fuel and tobacco companies, it was confirmed that it did; it also invested in the FTSE 100 etc; it tried to stay as ethical as it could.
Councillor Byatt stated that ethical could be about the green agenda but he stated that there were a lot of green energy initiatives happening too; he asked if the Council was going to ensure that it got its slice of that, if it had not already. The Leader responded, referring to investments in green energy, and stated that the Council was looking at every investment that it could potentially make to improve the income for the Council so that it could deliver more. He added, however, that it was not just about money, it was about the right thing to do, so there were a number of options being looked at both through economic development and through the green agenda.
RESOLVED
1 That the draft Medium Term Financial Strategy attached as Appendix A.
2 That Members and Officers develop proposals to set a balanced budget for 2020/21 and beyond.